The growing presence of jihadist groups in conflict settings complicates peacemaking and fosters a “hunker down and bunker up” mentality among international actors, especially UN peace operations, on the ground.
The internationalization of civil wars tends to make them deadlier and longer.
Organised crime has emerged as a major stress factor that exacerbates state fragility, undermines state legitimacy, and often lowers the incentives of armed groups to enter political settlements.
Conflicts are becoming more intractable and less conducive to traditional political settlements mainly due to three developments:.
Among the key trends we see is that: a larger share of today’s mass atrocities takes place in the context of civil wars rebel groups have become increasingly responsible for the majority of civilian deaths and the number of displaced people due to violence is at an all-time high.
Some forms of violence against civilian populations in wartime are increasing, posing challenges to the protection of civilians.
60% of conflicts in the early 2000s relapsed within five years.
With a decline in civil wars ending in military victory, the conflict relapse rate has increased.
From 2011 to today, there has been a six-fold increase in battle deaths, with 20 being the deadliest years on the battlefield since the end of the Cold War.
The number of minor civil wars have also risen in recent years, largely due to the expansion of the Islamic State and its affiliates.
After declining for much of the 1990s, the number of major civil wars has almost tripled in the past decade.
This paper provides insights into major recent trends in violent conflict, and analyses the implications of these trends for international actors engaged in conflict prevention and management.
25 Project Status: Completed UNU-CPR RESEARCHERS: Sebastian von Einsiedel, Louise Bosetti, Cale Salih, Wilfred Wan, Dr James Cockayne.
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